mardi 28 janvier 2014

State of the Union Response: Will Anyone Survive?

It started with Bobby Jindal. He was the hot, young, ethnic Republican whose career was streaking for the stars. He was going to be the kryptonite to counter superman, Obama. Here was the Republican stepping out to steal Obama's thunder...right up until Jindal opened his mouth and removed any chance he might have ever had of running for president. He was flattened.



He wasn't alone. No a single Republican has given a reply unscathed. Marco Rubio: gone. Mitch Daniels: gone. Bob McDonnell gave something more like a campaign speech than a response. Paul Ryan didn't do so well either. If Paul Ryan had done well then he would be the clear front runner for 2016; instead he has about as much chance of winning as Rand Paul.



So, Republicans have figured out that the Republican response is mostly The Charge of Light Brigade and that someone's blood is going to be soaking into the ground afterwards. So, the plan now is gang up on Obama, hitting him with four different responses and hope that someone gets close enough to draw some blood. How likely is this to work?



Well, the first reply we can dismiss is Rand Paul. Although he is first class whiner, he isn't much of a speaker. I'm still trying to figure out how could stand up with straight face and talk about succeeding based on your own ability rather than who your parents were. So, the son of a senator is claiming that he made it by his own ability while criticizing a man (Obama) who actually did? That's pretty tone deaf even for a Republican.



Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen(R-Fla.), the most senior Hispanic Republican, will give the Spanish language response which means that most Americans won't see it. However, the Spanish speaking Americans who do see it will be all too aware that Republicans are not serious about immigration reform and that the only progress has come from Obama. So, how far can that get?



Senator Mike Lee (R-Utah) is delivering a speech sponsored by the Astro-turf Tea Party Express. I would guess that few will see his speech and the content will be rather shrill and disconnected.



So, that only leaves the official Republican response. The Republican drill is: if you are really scared then find a woman whose skirts you can hide behind. Those skirts would be worn by Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), who as the No. 4 GOP leader is the highest-ranking female Republican in Congress. Could she pull it off? Well, not if she tries to defend the GOP against the war on women charge. If she turns a blind eye to Republican opposition to Planned Parenthood, Equal Pay for Women, and the Violence Against Women Act, she'll come across as tone deaf as Rand Paul. It's going to be very difficult for her to maintain credibility while being critical. The smart play would be to not be critical but with no Republican offers on the table, that will come across as hollow rhetoric. So, maybe she can do it but I have no idea how. I think the bottom line is that Rodgers doesn't have much to lose since she probably wasn't planning on running for the presidency anyway.





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