samedi 29 mars 2014

New Lunar Lunacy

Next month's total lunar eclipse will be the first of four total lunar eclipses in a row (i.e.: with no intervening partial eclipses). This is a apparently a fairly rare happening, a few times per millennium.



And... two of them are on the Jewish Passover, and two on Sukkot, so the eschatologically minded are getting involved. In particular, one John Hagee, whose end-time predictions are not rare phenomena at all. At least this time, he's confining his statements to "something will happen in the Middle East, involving Israel" but others are already betting on the end of the world. http://ift.tt/1oc1UMo



Oh, and there are (partial) Solar eclipses around the same time.



Some thoughts of my own on the rarity of the event:



Eclipses happen in "eclipse seasons" which occur twice a year, approximately 6 months apart. Since there are at least two lunar eclipses a year, and passover always falls on the full moon, there is maybe a 1/6 chance of a given passover having an eclipse. Since Sukkot follows passover by 6 months, a passover eclipse greatly increases the chance of a sukkot eclipse. And since the eclipse season of the following year is only slightly off from the previous year, it is unremarkable that the same coincidences would occur in the next year.



The solar eclipses are absolutely unremarkable; solar eclipses always occur in eclipse season, a fortnight on either side of the lunar eclipse.



So the only coincidences here are the eclipse tetrad itself, and; given that, the 1/6 chance that it would start on passover.



What amazes me is that in 2014, eclipses are still viewed as heavenly portents of doom.





via JREF Forum http://ift.tt/1k77utF

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