lundi 29 septembre 2014

The True Threat of ISIS

Daily, if not more often, we are being told how dangerous IS is and how big a threat it is to us.



I am left wondering... How?



While IS has a small army, it has a maybe 50 thousand men at best. Surrounding it, to the south it has Saudi Arabia with 150,000 active troops, and US backing. To the north it has Turkey with over half a million active troops, and another half a million in reserve, plus NATO backing. To the west it has Lebanon over (130,000 active, nearly 400k reserve plus with up to another 65k with Hezbollah joining in as they are already fighting IS), Jordan (110k active, 65 reserve) and Israel (175k active, nearly 500k reserve). To the East they have Iran (550,000 active troops, over 2 million reserve.)



So let's say that ISIS did take over all of Iraq and Syria (highly unlikely) what could they actually do then? They still wouldn't even have the numbers or resources to invade their stable neighbours, let alone the numbers and resources required to invade any western country.



Based on that, the likelihood of IS being a direct threat to any Western Country by direct invasion would be pretty close to zero.



So that leaves the possibility of small terrorist type strikes. While devastating to families that lose loved ones this one, in the 13 years since 9/11 there is exactly zero evidence that such tactics, even one that killed nearly 3000 people, has not had any major long term effect in destabilizing or toppling the western world.



Based on this, the over all threat to the Western World to terrorism strikes is again zero (note here this is the threat level to the existence western world as an entity not that there is zero chance of being killed or hurt in a terrorist attack against the west, rather that such an attack would have no overall effect on the continued existence of the Western World.)



Given this, I have to ask the question. Exactly what threat is IS to the Western World's existence and to our freedoms?



Feel free to answer why you voted as you did below.





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