lundi 29 décembre 2014

Rational Beliefs in an Infinite Multiverse.

Assume a multiverse of infinite different universes.



In some of those universes, fantastical luck will be the norm. Examples: mediums will always guess correctly, psychics will accurately predict the future, erosion patterns will spell out scientific truths like germ theory, people walk through walls via quantum tunneling*, monkeys typing randomly on typewriters are bestselling authors, random number generators often produce coded messages that accurately predict the future, etc.



Imagine you lived in such a world. What would be more reasonable to believe: that there exists an infinite amount of universes and you live in the one where extreme odds happen all the time, or that something other than chance is at work? What if multiverse theory was mostly speculation, with little (or no) evidence to support it?



Supposed you plucked someone from this world and the "lucky" world and had them debate why the worlds are the way they are. Suppose both agree that a multiverse exists, but neither person has direct evidence of its existence. Who would win the debate? Would whipping out monkey-authored Macbeth and Hamlet be devastating evidence against the person from this world? What evidence could the person from our world produce?







* that one might not be theoretically possible





via International Skeptics Forum http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showthread.php?t=286914&goto=newpost

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