Just went to see "The Martian", and afterwards got into a discussion with some friends about the probability of sending humans to Mars.
I think it's going to happen. Not sure when, but it's going to happen. And I think that the Chinese will be the first to do it. The reason why is simple.
If America, or any other Western country sends people to Mars, they have to do so with a reasonable expectation of bringing them back to Earth alive. That means they not only have to get them to Mars, but have to get them back off of the planet, and then back to Earth. The amount of money, fuel, supplies, etc., is effectively doubled. And it will take much longer to develop our technology to the point where we could do that.
For the Chinese, they don't need to worry about that. They just need a one-way trip. Glorious Chinese martyrs, dying for a glorious cause. Send them to Mars, with enough equipment and supplies for them to live as long as possible, and start setting up a base for future arrivals. Then send another set, to continue doing the same thing. Continue this pattern until there is a base which is actually capable of supporting long-term survival on the planet. Then they'll start working out the issue of how to bring people back.
I don't think that enough of the American public would ever support sending Americans to die on Mars, knowing that it's a one-way trip, for such a plan to ever be a reality. Nor would any other Western nation.
But China? They'd be national heroes. Not only that, they'd have the huge bonus that they got to Mars before the U.S. And that any future U.S. missions would be largely dependent on the work done by the Chinese who arrived there first.
A one-way trip, with no expectation whatsoever of survival or return, is far, far easier and cheaper to plan, than a round-trip plan with at least a reasonable expectation of survival. China can do that. I don't think the U.S. can.
I think it's going to happen. Not sure when, but it's going to happen. And I think that the Chinese will be the first to do it. The reason why is simple.
If America, or any other Western country sends people to Mars, they have to do so with a reasonable expectation of bringing them back to Earth alive. That means they not only have to get them to Mars, but have to get them back off of the planet, and then back to Earth. The amount of money, fuel, supplies, etc., is effectively doubled. And it will take much longer to develop our technology to the point where we could do that.
For the Chinese, they don't need to worry about that. They just need a one-way trip. Glorious Chinese martyrs, dying for a glorious cause. Send them to Mars, with enough equipment and supplies for them to live as long as possible, and start setting up a base for future arrivals. Then send another set, to continue doing the same thing. Continue this pattern until there is a base which is actually capable of supporting long-term survival on the planet. Then they'll start working out the issue of how to bring people back.
I don't think that enough of the American public would ever support sending Americans to die on Mars, knowing that it's a one-way trip, for such a plan to ever be a reality. Nor would any other Western nation.
But China? They'd be national heroes. Not only that, they'd have the huge bonus that they got to Mars before the U.S. And that any future U.S. missions would be largely dependent on the work done by the Chinese who arrived there first.
A one-way trip, with no expectation whatsoever of survival or return, is far, far easier and cheaper to plan, than a round-trip plan with at least a reasonable expectation of survival. China can do that. I don't think the U.S. can.
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1OqbvLJ
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