vendredi 29 janvier 2016

The ghosts and the walking dead

Ghost candidates

Ben Carson - I don't believe that he ever had any intention of being elected. He put out three books in 2015. I think his campaign has mostly been a way to get publicity and promote his books while having someone else pay for it. There is also the possibility that like Palin he is desperate to stay in the spotlight. However, unlike Palin, Carson was once accomplished and well respected. After becoming head of pediatric neurosurgery at Johns Hopkins at the age of 33 his team separated conjoined twins in a 22 hour operation in 1987.

Donald Trump - I don't believe that Trump actually wants to be president. I can't see him being out of the corporate world for four years or having someone else plan his schedule everyday. My guess would be that he is trying to rehabilitate his image after making a fool of himself with his birther obsession. I think he probably also has some lobbying goal such as a more favorable tax policy, fewer regulations, or perhaps eliminating the inheritance tax. Looking like a serious candidate could help with that.

Jim Gilmore - He's only raised $300,000 total, even counting outside groups. He has $34,000 on hand and debts of $43,000. I couldn't call this a real campaign.

The walking dead

John Kassich - $2.6 million in campaign cash on hand.
Rand Paul - $2.1 million cash on hand.
Chris Christie - $1.4 million cash on hand.
Martin O'Malley - $806,000 cash on hand.
Mike Huckabee - $760,000 cash on hand.
Rick Santorum - $227,000 cash on hand.


Over two million might sound like a lot of money but Lindsey Graham has already dropped out with $1.6 million on hand. The last chance to gain momentum is the gap between New Hampshire and South Carolina.

February 9, New Hampshire primary.
February 13, Republican debate in North Carolina.
February 20, South Carolina primary.

However, after South Carolina, the lagging campaigns will quickly fade since they won't have enough money or volunteers to get through Super Tuesday on March 1. This is also when I would expect the Carson and Trump campaigns to fade since the schedule leading to Super Tuesday is brutal and the candidate would have to be serious about running.


via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/1QJTQj8

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