For those who won't do the math or who can't read the writing on the wall, we are at the point where the actual numbers of delegates, particularly "delegates remaining" make forecasting a bit easier.
For purposes of this thread, I'm using the delegates apportioned according to the NYT. http://ift.tt/1LlybNN Also, for purposes of this thread ('tho you're entitled to say why/if you don't agree) the superdelegates are being counted. As superdelegates undeclare and shift allegiance, they'll be counted for the new party they're supporting.
As of the opening of this thread, the two leading candidates are within hailing distance, but not before a number of primaries take place, of copping the big prize. I'll be copying over the bolded part at the end and adjust it with every primary/caucus (or announcement of superdelegate(s) shifts).
I've posed the question before but get only nebulous responses. I posed it re Bernie stopping Hillary, but it applies equally to Cruz stopping Trump (or "The Man" stopping Trump).
Show the figures how you think either can/will be stopped.
Hillary needs 671 delegates. With Dems being a proportional split, this means a calculation of how Bernie will stop her from getting those delegates. That figure represents only 32.5% of the remaining (2079) delegates.
Trump needs 498. With the GOP's winner-take-all in some states, that might prove easier, but it still represents a much larger percentage of the remaining delegates. He needs to take nearly 60% of the remaining delegates.
There are multiple scenarios at play, but my thumbnail call is that we currently have a far better chance of seeing a brokered convention than we have of seeing Sanders' team stopping Hillary.
Delegates Needed
Hillary Clinton 671
Donald Trump 498
For purposes of this thread, I'm using the delegates apportioned according to the NYT. http://ift.tt/1LlybNN Also, for purposes of this thread ('tho you're entitled to say why/if you don't agree) the superdelegates are being counted. As superdelegates undeclare and shift allegiance, they'll be counted for the new party they're supporting.
As of the opening of this thread, the two leading candidates are within hailing distance, but not before a number of primaries take place, of copping the big prize. I'll be copying over the bolded part at the end and adjust it with every primary/caucus (or announcement of superdelegate(s) shifts).
I've posed the question before but get only nebulous responses. I posed it re Bernie stopping Hillary, but it applies equally to Cruz stopping Trump (or "The Man" stopping Trump).
Show the figures how you think either can/will be stopped.
Hillary needs 671 delegates. With Dems being a proportional split, this means a calculation of how Bernie will stop her from getting those delegates. That figure represents only 32.5% of the remaining (2079) delegates.
Trump needs 498. With the GOP's winner-take-all in some states, that might prove easier, but it still represents a much larger percentage of the remaining delegates. He needs to take nearly 60% of the remaining delegates.
There are multiple scenarios at play, but my thumbnail call is that we currently have a far better chance of seeing a brokered convention than we have of seeing Sanders' team stopping Hillary.
Delegates Needed
Hillary Clinton 671
Donald Trump 498
via International Skeptics Forum http://ift.tt/22JTYWY
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